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Zandi: Recession odds "now uncomfortably high"

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Fri, 27 Aug 2010|

The odds are rising America could backtrack into a recession. Moody's economic guru Mark Zandi tells MarketWatch News Break the odds are now "uncomfortably high" after the second quarter GDP report was revised down to 1.6%. Whether negative growth is next, he says, is a "close call." Plus, signs 3D ...

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Tags:

  1. Wall Street0:02, 1:13
  2. Major League soccer2:33
  3. Alex Rodriguez2:23
  4. John Edward9:20
  5. Brett favre's3:23
  6. Major League Baseball2:31
  7. Economic growth0:58
  8. housing market7:16
  9. negative territory6:38

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Automatically Generated Transcript (may not be 100% accurate)

This is MarketWatch news break money news from Wall Street to main street to your street I'm John -- And -- and Kate's coming up on that show honey I shrunk the economy GDP now only one point 6%. So are we close to negative growth and a recession.

I think the odds are rising that the economy could -- backtrack into recession I think the archer still. Well below even but they clearly have reasons over the last 4812 weeks and they are now currently high.

Mark Zandi economic guru from Moody's coming up maybe we could jumpstart the economy by selling more athletic apparel.

Do you collect sports memorabilia here's a story four is that collectible Jersey the real thing. I'm Adrian Mitchell and I'll have more on how to find out coming up all that news after these headlines.

I'm Steve Potisk in the MarketWatch radio network newsroom on Friday August 27. Economic growth slowed in the second quarter more than originally forecast the government says gross domestic product growth came in at one point 6%. Down from the earlier 2.4 percent forecast and down from the better than three and a half percent in the first quarter. But Wall Street had been expecting the news to be even worse so what does that all mean a conversation with -- economist Mark Zandi is coming up. It's been a long time coming but there's word blockbuster is readying a bankruptcy filing for mid September. The LA times says the video rental chain informed executives at the major film studios last week of its intention to enter a pre planned bankruptcy near the middle of next month. As it deals -- billion dollar debt. More job cuts are coming to a major newspaper of the nation's number two paper USA today a slashing 130 jobs as owner -- makes the most radical changes to the paper it's 28 year history. The cuts amount to a 9% workforce reduction it's not clear which department will be hardest hit but both business operations. And the newsroom will be affected I'm Steve -- and you're listening to MarketWatch news break.

With football season starting up you're going to see a lot more jerseys around town some of them may even feature. Auto graphs but how do you know looked -- Jersey is the real deal and at that autograph is the real deal.

Adrian -- now on detecting sports memorabilia knockoffs. Is that collectible Jersey the real thing it became a multi million dollar question recently when Alex Rodriguez hit his 600 career home run. A company called upset was on the case.

We were all the major sports leagues NFL Major League Baseball. NBA and Major League soccer folks.

Jeffrey Unger is president of -- security brand protection his company makes tamper proof holographic tanks their placed on the real thing. And it's not just sports stuff that needs brand protection we were.

With over 400 major brands from Nader look tree items all the way to apparel companies to hardware manufacturers to cellphone pompous.

Unger says counterfeit merchandise accounts for more than 7% of world trade. But there are ways to avoid buying fakes when you shop on line.

Like taking a look at their -- also the most illicit side they really don't have much of -- return policy number two. Nor ensure the option to view the products based on any kind of Serb party reviews -- consumer information sites on the e-commerce site itself.

For MarketWatch news break.

I Adrian it's thanks Adrian and you don't own any Jersey -- I don't think so no -- name at number twelve for Brett favre's number four. Yeah I know you don't seem like a Jersey girl. Maybe a Delaware or Philly girl when not -- Jersey bureau now across the river from New Jersey and not actual Jersey itself you know that that is it that term by the way Jersey girl. Yup talking about women who wear these jerseys searchers are girls really you know what you learned something today and that. We'll learn something next on the economy after this.

Everybody and their brother sisters and second guys interstate and they can save you money on guard -- well who listens to Brothers sisters and second -- I got -- save people money on car insurance for over seventy years -- louder than most companies have been around that probably longer than you're better around believe me when it comes to saving you money -- isn't guy goes first tabbed as the rodeo.

For a free race we'll -- Geico dot com or call 180947. On fifteen minutes could save you hundreds on car insurance. -- honey I shrunk the economy economic growth for the second quarter has been revised down to one point 6% an earlier estimate. Had pegged growth that 2.4 percent. Despite the decline the latest figure is not as bad as expected and economists surveyed by MarketWatch. We're predicting one point 3% growth. So vote joining us now. Is Mark Zandi he is chief economist at Moody's analytics. So mark what do you make of this news.

Well it -- economy is that slowing recovery has lost momentum. That -- growth was backing Q4 road nine close to 6% annualized growth because. Just out of 4% Q1 and now it one point 6% Q2 so. The recovery is is weakening. And are you concerned by this. Yes I think the odds are rise saying that the economy could -- backtrack into recession I think the archer still. Well below even but they clearly have reason over the last 4812 weeks and they are now currently high.

And I guess given all this where do we go from here what is the the solution for solving our -- with the economy.

Hopefully. Businesses. Use the profits that they're hurting and that's the one really posit piece of information today's report that corporate profits. Are rising strongly that this is used as profits. And -- into contested. And more importantly begin to hire more aggressively -- if they do that and recovery won't -- intact. It they will. I think it will cluster the point that can fashion. Economy will be -- slower but that there's there's the risk. Now given we have revise things downward is that next step negative growth. I don't think so -- we will wait we -- who will go back in recession but really close calls the economy. In the current quarter Q3 is now tracking closer to 1% so. We are. Or thank you very close to and number but it equal weighted wow wow so that we're gonna really come up close to a touch it. -- within a year short fly ball of having a negative territory but not quite get there yeah of course you know this is the dialogue August -- in the worse so we could get some improvement but. Right now. -- looks like 1%. Number Q3 and that's not much closer. And how do we generate growth from here. Well the open it is this weekend. It was using that that the cash and profits that they're earning. Policy makers to do still has some room to support the Communist literature. Could it probably will be in. More quantitative easing in an effort to bring down long term rates -- export interest to help the housing market stimulant or refinancing activity. A fiscal policy makers don't know a lot more room to maneuver they do that they would be decisions are two expiring tax cuts. Hopefully they make that decision quickly because the church it was a part of that is the policy decisions. Probably playing a role in why businesses are using their cash their profits to.

He's Mark Zandi the chief economist at Moody's analytics joining us to talk about the latest on the economy mark thank you -- And now the daily news -- usually confused -- the water cooler. And as we always do we wind down the show with some useful information but daily news -- something you could use at the water cooler. So and what -- have for us.

We're talking about 3-D movies it seems like every movie just about is 3-D because of avatar was so popular so a lot of people in Hollywood lot of producers are converting their films and the three day. But the company. BT IG research. Lowered its estimates on a real. Because they say that investor excitement about 3-D is starting to go away because of the saturation level not only. Are they converting in some cases really bad movies and the 3-D but they're also commanding your premium for the ticket prices. Research firm thinks that. You know may be three day won't be the in trend -- so so -- the -- so is it fair to say that may be -- is already fading to black -- they analysts say that this that they think that -- calling -- consumer fatigue about 3-D is setting and.

Wow I find that DreamWorks. -- Sony Pictures I answer. CB has served wherever any other movie house out there. Pixar I have to be worried don't you think I would think so now while we'll keep on top of this story keep following it too will sketch out more details as they. Com become available. And takes their tanks and thank you I'm John Edward Duncan this has been MarketWatch news break.

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